Federal Budgetary Institution "Avialesookhrana (Aerial Forest Fire Center)" has developed a long-term forecast of emergency risks in the forests of Russia for August 2017

Objectives and methodology for developing a long-term emergency risk forecast in forests

For predictive respond of regional forestry departments and forest fire services, authorities of various levels and involved governmental agencies, the Aerial Forest Fire Center has developed a forecast of fire danger in the forests of Russia for August 2017

This forecast is a unique product, because its development has been carried out on the establishment of cooperation between Roshydromet's weather forecast data and the long-term data of the Aerial Forest Fire Center on the burning of forests. It is important to note that, under equal weather conditions, the fire hazard of different types of forests, such as pine forests and spruce forests, occurs at different rates, which has also been taken into account in the development of the forecast.

The predicted high risk of forest fires does not mean that an emergency will necessarily occur in the region. Everything depends on the population's compliance with fire safety rules, because the human factor is the main cause of forest fires.

Also an important role is given to early detection of fires, for which fire-fighting services carry out ground and aerial monitoring, and also equip forests with video surveillance systems. Fire extinguishing is carried out both manually and with the use of ground and aviation fire-fighting equipment.

Long-term forecast for August 2017

According to the forecast of Federal Aerial Forest Fire Center, an increased probability of emergencies in the forests in August 2017 is expected in the following territories:

Central FD (Federal District) (the southern part of the Kursk region, the southern part of the Voronezh region, throughout the Belgorod region);

Southern FD (the southern part of the Volgograd region, throughout the Rostov region, the Republic of Kalmykia and the Astrakhan region);

North-Caucasian FD (northern and eastern part of the Stavropol Territory, northern part of the Republic of Dagestan);

Privolzhsky (Volga region)FD (eastern districts of the Saratov region, south-east of the Samara region, central and southern parts of the Orenburg region, southern part of the Republic of Bashkortostan);

Ural FD (throughout the Chelyabinsk region, the eastern part of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Disctrict, the eastern part of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District);

Siberian FD (northern and central parts of the Krasnoyarsk Territory, including the Evenk Municipal District, northern part of the Irkutsk Region);

The Far Eastern FD (the western part of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the eastern part of the Khabarovsk Territory (Nikolaevsky District), the northern part of the Sakhalin Region, the southern and northeastern parts of the Kamchatka Territory, the southeastern part of the Chukotka Autonomous District).

About the current forest fire situation in Russia.

According to the situation as of July 30 in Russia, 8.1 thousand forest fires have been brought under control. Settlements, suburban associations and economic entities have not suffered from forest fires in the current year. All fires in the settlements of the Irkutsk region, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Buryatia on May 24, 25, on April 27, 28, which caused public outcry, have resulted from dry grass, incineration of garbage, wires short circuits, and violations of fire safety regulations at enterprises.